Title: Multistate Healthy Life Expectancy Decomposition 
Acronym: MultiLED 
Principal Investigator: Timothy Riffe 
Funder: La Caixa Foundation
Grant Identifier: SR22-00502
Total funded amount: 99999.46€
Dates: 01/12/2022 - 30/11/2024

Summary: This project will develop, describe, test, and apply a method to decompose differences in summary measures calculated from multistate models reliably. We will apply the approach to multistate estimates of healthy life expectancy (HLE) in Spain to explain trends and inequalities in HLE in terms of health and mortality transitions. 

Methods: We will estimate health and mortality transitions for the Spanish population using EU-SILC and SHARE data and use these to calculate healthy and unhealthy life expectancy using multistate models. The proposed decomposition method will then be used to explain changes and gaps in healthy life expectancy. 

Expected results: Decomposition results will indicate the absolute and relative importance of mortality differences and critical transitions such as the onset and recovery from disability. 

Social relevance: These results will help quantify the relative importance of life-saving versus prevention and recovery on healthy life years. Such information aids in framing policies aimed at closing gaps and continuing health improvement for the whole population. 

Scientific value: For social scientists using multistate models to estimate working life expectancy, partnership expectancies, or healthy life expectancy, our proposed decomposition method will allow research into some of the most compelling questions in social science: what transitions determine trends and what transitions create gender, class, geographical, and other inequalities?

Papers:

• Tianyu Shen, Tim Riffe, Collin Payne, and Vladimir Canudas Romo (2023, accepted) Decomposition of Differences in Health Expectancies from Multistate Life Table. Demography. Citation details forthcoming. Earlier version available as preprint:  Tianyu Shen, Tim Riffe, Collin Payne, and Vladimir Canudas Romo (2023) Decomposition of Differences in Health Expectancies from Multistate Life Table. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/xcp2f 
• Margherita Moretti, Tim Riffe, and Angelo Lorenti (2023) Multistate analysis and decomposition of disability-free life expectancy trends in Italy 2004-2019. MPIDR Working Paper WP-2023-030. https://dx.doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-030 (this paper is currently under review)

Papers in preparation:

• Tim Riffe, Mauricio González-Forero, and Francisco Villavicencio. Sensitivity and decomposition of multistate healthy life expectancy.
• Tim Riffe, Rustam Tursun-zade. Decomposing a Sullivan expectancy: An indirect incidence-based approach.
• Presentations (presenter underlined):
• Tim Riffe (2022, August 30 - Sept 2)  invited presentation “Decomposing differences in multistate indices: Compositional reflections” Climbing Mortality Models workshop, Misurina, Italy
• Tim Riffe, Mauricio González-Forero, and Francisco Villavicencio (2023, Sept 20-22) “Sensitivity and decomposition of multistate healthy life expectancy” (poster) EAPS Health, Morbidity, and Mortality Working Group meeting. Budapest, Hungary.
• Tim Riffe, Mauricio González-Forero, and Francisco Villavicencio (2023, May 24-26) “Sensitivity and decomposition of multistate healthy life expectancy” (poster) REVES Meeting. Padua, Italy. 
• Tianyu Shen, Tim Riffe, Collin Payne, and Vladimir Canudas Romo (2023, April 12-15)  “Decomposing the Difference in Healthy Life Expectancy From Multistate Life Table” (poster) PAA Annual Meeting, New Orleans, USA.
• Margherita Moretti, Tim Riffe, and Angelo Lorenti (2023, April 12-15)  “A Multistate Analysis and Decomposition of Disability-Free Life Expectancy Trends in Italy, 2004–2019” (poster) PAA Annual Meeting, New Orleans, USA.