<b>ABSTRACT</b></br>

Pavement performance models play a vital role in any pavement management system. The Regional Government of Biscay (RGB) (Spain) manages a 1200 km road network and conducts pavement data collections, including the International Roughness Index (IRI) values. The aim of the paper is to develop an IRI performance model for two-lane roads with flexible pavement until the first maintenance and/or rehabilitation activity is performed. Due to the huge amount of available information, a deterministic model was selected. A literature review of deterministic models showed that, apart from age and traffic volumes, the pavement structure is a key factor. Therefore, it was decided to analyze the only road stretches whose entire pavement section was known (surface layer + base + subbase). Various variables related to age, traffic volumes and employed materials were introduced as possible factors. The multiple linear regression model with the highest coefficient of determination and all the variables significant included the real pavement age, the cumulated heavy traffic and the total thickness of bituminous layers. As the material employed in the surface layer could affect roughness progression, a qualitative variable was introduced to consider various surface materials. The model improved its accuracy, indicating that the surface layer material is also an influencing factor on IRI evolution.

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<b>ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS</b></br>

This research was carried out by means of the agreement between the Mechanical Engineering Department of the University of the Basque Country and the Department of Transport and Public Works of the Regional Government of Biscay which allowed the first author to handle and analyze data of the database of the pavement management system of the RGB to develop pavement performance models.