<span lang="en">In this paper, we consider mobile multimedia services delivered over a UMTS network. In this convergent scenario, low level error recovery mechanisms of the access network entail that almost all packet losses are caused by frames arriving at the receiver later than the playout time. Our aim is to find a simplified yet realistic expression for the statistics of the end–to–end delay in order to characterize related application level losses and infer resulting Quality of Experience (QoE). We present a simple and easy to implement model based on empirically obtained parameters that quantitatively reflects the statistical properties of delay. We apply the model to estimate the behavior of application level losses and delay which are the key factors while forecasting QoE in VoIP. Obtained results prove the suitability of the model to be integrated in cross–layer adaptation mechanisms and its utility for dimensioning VoIP playout buffers is also tested.</span>